Macroeconomic Analysis as a Cornerstone of Investment Decisions

As more and more professional services firms choose to use video to promote their services, it is no longer sufficient merely to have an explainer video on your website. Many sales people, researchers and analysts realise the huge benefits of an online visual presence that builds engagement with both existing and potential customers. One of our clients, the independent alternative advisory firm Alvine Capital, has recently revamped their website to enable broadcasting of their video content.

The chairman of Alvine’s investment committee, Stephen Isaacs, is a frequent speaker at investment conferences and in the media, including the Institutional Investor, Eurohedge, Bloomberg and CNBC.  

At the end of last year, while working with Alvine on the content for their website, we had the opportunity to interview Stephen about his role and listen to his advice to investors: 

“My role is to try to mould different traits of economics, politics and markets into a simple macroeconomic theme which our customers then can use. 

Getting the macroeconomic story right is the single most important issue the clients will face. If you choose the right fund, but in the wrong space, then even a very skilled manager will not necessary be successful. So understanding where interest rates are going, or where emerging markets are heading, or when the ETF or Index-tracking strategy will no longer be successful, are absolutely key issues that we are trying to challenge ourselves with, and then use this analysis to inform clients.  We can then move to the second phase, which allows to align strategies with managers and ultimately successful investment.

At the backend of 2016, it is clear to us that the bond market’s incredible run for over 30 years is coming to an end. Even central banks have realised that the policy of very low or even negative interest rates is destroying the savers’ incentive to spend their money, undermining confidence in the economy and destroying the financial sector.  

Our advice has been: for equity investors to move out from defensive utility-type stock, and favour cyclicals or financials. For bond investors, simply shorten their duration. For emerging markets investors, switch from debt into equity.  Even for alternatives, it is essential to analyse what the key drivers of your risk are.  Is it trade finance receivables, is it reinsurance? Each of these assets has a singular macroeconomics dynamic which we analyse and try to conclude what is the best for you”. 


If you are interested to learn more about Alvine Capital and their services, you can watch above the company’s introduction by the Founder and Director Thomas Raber, or go to their website and watch more advice and expert opinion from Stephen Isaacs.


Should you need assistance with production of business video content for your organisation, please contact us today.